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| This
report is the fourth in the NFU’s Farm Crisis series. The other
three titles are: The Farm Crisis, EU Subsidies, and Agribusiness Market Power (February 17, 2000) The Farm Crisis, Bigger Farms, and the Myths of Competition and Efficiency (November 20, 2003) The Farm Crisis: Its Causes and Solutions (July 5, 2005) |
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you value this analysis and want to support our work, please join the
NFU as a family farm member
($150) or as a non-farmer, associate member ($50). To join us, or to
make a donation, please
call the NFU or visit our website. Please see contact information
below. National Farmers Union (306) 652-9465 http://www.nfu.ca Join the NFU or support our work |
| These
worse-than-the-Depression net incomes have driven farmers off the
land—cutting their number by 11%
in the five years between the latest agricultural censuses (1996 and
2001). If this rate of loss persists (and it is probably accelerating), it will
cut the current number of farmers in half by 2025. And the negative effects are not confined to our farms. Many rural communities are withering. After more than a century of developing and populating rural Canada, today we’re boarding up stores, closing schools, and ripping up railway tracks. The Canadian economy suffers as it loses the profits from food production. Taxpayers suffer as they are made to pay four to five billion dollars per year to support farmers. And the country suffers as these billions are taken away from education, healthcare, environmental protection, the arts, and infrastructure. All parts of Canadian society suffer as a result of this unprecedented disintegration of the systems that previously returned adequate prices, revenues, and profits to the families and communities that produce our food. |
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Farmers’ net income
numbers are
bad, but their “profit”
numbers are worse.
Realized Net Income is not the same as corporate profit, which is calculated after every worker is paid. Thus, to calculate farmers’ profits, we must first subtract from Realized Net Income the value of farm family labour and management. Unfortunately, there are no figures for the value of farm family labour and management. For the purpose of this report, we will use the following estimate: $5.57 billion per year. That estimate is calculated by assigning the following values: For the 130,450 Canadian farms with gross revenues below $50,000 (based on the 2001 Census of Agriculture), we assign a value for labour and management of zero; For the 35,255 farms with revenues between $50,000 and $100,000, we assign $20,000 per year; For the 47,079 farms with revenues between $100,000 and $250,000, we assign $40,000 per year; For the 21,396 farms with revenues between $250,000 and $500,000, we assign $80,000 per year; and For the 12,743 farms with revenues above $500,000, we assign $100,000 per year. These salary estimates are certainly arbitrary, but just as certainly conservative. Consider this: $5.57 billion would cover just 124,000 management salaries (at $45,000 per year). There are about 230,000 farms in Canada today and many of the medium-sized and large ones rely on the labour and management of two or three family members. Taking $5.57 billion per year as the value of labour and management, we can calculate farmers’ profit from the markets: negative $7.75 billion for 2004 ($5.57 billion subtracted from farmers’ Market Net Income of negative $2.17 billion). Using this negative $7.75 billion figure, we can calculate a Return on Equity number for farmers comparable to numbers used by corporations. That number - farmers’ 2004 Return on Equity from the markets (Market ROE)—is negative 5.09%. As Table 1, below, shows, Return on Equity is a critical measure: it allows direct comparison between the profitability of relatively-small farms and the profitability of the largest corporations. |
| Data quality and disclaimer Researching this report posed two problems: determining which companies dominate each link in the agri-food chain, and compiling and calculating financial indicators for each of those companies. Determining the names of the dominant players is complicated—made more so by corporate secrecy and government unwillingness to publish data that mentions corporations by name. When it comes to market share data, there is almost no publicly available information, this despite the fact that the corporations themselves have detailed market share data on their competitors (purchased from companies such as AC Neilson) and despite the fact that governments compile similarly detailed market share data. While the NFU has undertaken extensive research over the past year to determine which corporations dominate each link in the chain, the companies listed on the following pages should be seen as representative of the sector, rather than the “top” companies in each link. In many cases, the companies listed are the top companies and they are listed in order of rank of market share, but in some sectors this is not the case. The financial data listed for each company has been compiled and calculated from a wide range of sources. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error, errors in source documents, as well as other factors, such information is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. The NFU is committed to accuracy and welcomes comments on the data presented in this report. Please contact us at http://nfu@nfu.ca . |
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| “The free market is a
myth. Everybody knows that. Just very few people say it. . . . [I]f I’m
not smart enough to know there’s no free market, I ought to be fired. .
. . You can’t have farming on a total laissez-faire system because the
sellers are too weak and the buyers are too strong.” —Dwayne Andreas, CEO of Archer Daniels Midland Corporation.5 |
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Farm crisis myths
Myths abound about the causes of
the farm crisis. Here’s a
selection.Myth: Oversupply is the problem. Facts: The world grain stocks/use ratio - the most oft-quoted measure of supply and demand - touched a 30-year low in 2004. In five of the last six years, globally, we consumed more grain than we produced. Other food sources—fish, game, wild plants - are in decline. Over the next six years, we will add to the world’s population the equivalent of another North America. And (Brazil notwithstanding) we will attempt to feed these added people on about the same area of cropland we have today. Myth: Farmers are inefficient. Facts: Since the 1960s, farmers have posted the highest efficiency gains of any sector in the Canadian economy. Today, farmers produce and sell for 1970’s prices— a feat unmatched by Coke, Nike, or Shell. Myth: EU & US subsidies are to blame. Facts: The assertion that subsidies cause increased production, oversupply, and falling prices is false. There is no correlation between subsidy levels and production increases. And there is no oversupply. A study by US economist Daryll Ray and associates found that ending subsidies would increase grain prices by less than 3%. Myth: A rising dollar is to blame. Facts: In 1974, the Canadian dollar peaked, and so did farm prosperity. There is no correlation between our dollar’s value and our farms’ prosperity. Myth: Government regulation and interference are the problems. Facts: The farm crisis has landed with equal ferocity on highly regulated farms in the EU and relatively unregulated farms in Argentina and Australia. Further, the most regulated Canadian farm sectors - supply managed dairy, eggs, and poultry—have borne the least impacts of our farm crisis. Finally, the most regulated sector of the global economy—pharmaceuticals—is the most profitable. |
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The least profitable
farming system in the world?
As our politicians go abroad to
promote genetically-modified
seeds, large-acreage farming,
and high-tech, efficient
production, we need a reality
check. It is possible that our
high-input, high-energy-use, maximum-production, maximum-export, andmaximum-cost production model is the least profitable in the world. Resource and energy scarcity and subsequent rising prices will further erode any residual profitability. Canadian subsidies work out to about $50 per acre of cropland. In order for most farmers to take a “wage” from their farms, current subsidies would have to nearly double. Thus, our industrial model of food production may be losing as much as $50 to $100 per acre. Chronically high subsidies in the US, EU, and other countries pursuing a similar model seem to support this pessimistic assessment. It is probable that low-tech, low-input, lowcost food production systems in Asia, Africa, and elsewhere make positive net returns. It appears that farmers using hoes and dung are much more profitable than our satellite guided computer-aided cohort. Indeed, data from Manitoba’s Glenlea Long-Term Crop Rotation Study confirms that Canadian farmers can achieve their highest profits when they use no purchased pesticides or fertilizers. In addition to the question of profit, there is a question of population. The industrial food production model leads to a situation where only one or two percent of the population produce food and most of the 98 percent take service sector jobs—as accountants, makeup consultants, advertising executives, derivative salesman, etc. If the rest of the world adopts our model, it may be challenging to sustain eight or nine billion such service-economy workers on the planet. Already, Asian, African, and Central and South American cities are ringed by slums—the results of exiling farmers from their land. The service sector opportunities available to these displaced farmers include the sex trade and militia duty for local warlords. |
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Many economists dead wrong about farm crisis To some economists, what we call the farm crisis is just the normal evolution of the sector—better technology leads to larger and more efficient, but fewer, farms. In this view, the expulsion of farmers is unavoidable short-term pain leading to long-term gain. This view might be defensible if the restructuring led to prosperity for the large, high-tech farmers who remain. But it does not. Figure 1 shows that net farm incomes for the past 20 years have been far below “normal” levels - essentially zero. Economists’ “evolution of the sector” assessment fails to predict or explain the massive shift in profitability from farmers to agribusiness. This shift in profitability begs explanation because it came at a time of rapid farm expansion, efficiency gains, and technology adoption. Economists should ponder whether getting bigger and purchasing more technology will move farmers out of the crisis, or deeper in. |
Farmers’
relative returns
There is no need to make again the point that farmers are suffering while others prosper. But it is illuminating to see just how lush corporate profits are when compared to those of farmers. One way to highlight this disparity is to ask the question: What would our farms and rural areas look like if the profits within the agri-food chain were allocated more equitably? What if farmers’ Return on Equity (ROE) rates approached those enjoyed by agribusiness? As calculated above, farmers’ Market ROE for 2004 was negative 5.09%. The result of a modest 10% ROE for farmers would be an additional $15 billion from the markets as payment for risking equity. But since ROE can only come only after everyone in the operation is paid, this additional $15 billion would come on top of the $5.57 billion calculated earlier as the value of farm family labour and management. This total of about $20 billion would mean about $90,000 per farm per year. For medium-sized and large farms, the increase in revenue and profits would amount to a multiple of that $90,000—perhaps $180,000 to $270,000. Now, an additional $180,000 to $270,000 per year on a medium-sized or large farm is perhaps more than is strictly necessary to restore prosperity and stability. Some might even call this sort of salary and ROE “excessive.” But those who call it excessive should remember that this number is derived by asking the question: what if farmers earned returns comparable to those earned by the stockholders of Wal-Mart, Weston, Monsanto, or MacDonald’s? If farm revenue and profit dollars calculated this way are excessive, it is because the revenues and profits earned in the other links of the chain are excessive. And that excessive revenue - and profit-taking is the main reason farmers are in crisis. A more equitable distribution of profit dollars would not only mean farm prosperity, it would mean prosperous communities. Billions that are now extracted to the head offices of foreign owned agribusiness corporations would stay and be spent in local towns and cities. Billions that now flow from taxpayers to farmers and on to farm input corporations could be saved and invested in health, education, the arts, infrastructure, or protecting the environment. |
| Thus, amid record-high demand, economy-topping efficiency, record-low costs, and consumption outstripping production, farmers have posted their largest losses in history. And agribusiness corporations have posted their largest profits. These facts are compatible with only one explanation of the farm crisis: the rewards of farmer productivity, efficiency, and cost-cutting are being seized by more-powerful players in the agri-food chain. Farmers are being plundered and liquidated. |
Solutions?
This report paints a dire portrait of our family farms. Surprisingly, however, solutions are numerous and close at hand. Because farmers are so productive and because world food supplies are very tight, small changes in policies could result in prosperity for farmers. Those interested in solutions should consult the following:
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