|
| Waiting |
Let's assume we know how many spins a location will go without showing...
We form a progression to handle "x" number of spins, then play only when we
have reached a point where we know we will win.
(of course this is a 100% win system, the problem is that a losing streak may and could
go beyond the limits we have as data)
This is all of the 2:1 bets for 100,000 spins combined into one chart.
(all 3 dozens and all 3 columns)
|
| |
COUNT
| SPINS
| 1
| 63,126
| 2
| 42,515
| 3
| 28,954
| 4
| 19,584
| 5
| 13,177
| 6
| 8,788
| 7
| 5,966
| 8
| 4,066
| 9
| 2,775
| 10
| 1,874
| 11
| 1,234
| 12
| 850
| 13
| 587
| 14
| 354
| 15
| 241
| 16
| 183
| 17
| 130
| 18
| 85
| 19
| 56
| 20
| 41
| 21
| 21
| 22
| 18
| 23
| 6
| 24
| 6
| 25
| 5
| 26
| 2
| 27
| 1
| 28
| 0
| 29
| 2
| 30
| 1
| 31
| 0
| 32
| 1
| 33
| 0
| 34
| 1
|
|
| |
We can see from our data that 34 spins was the max that any 2:1 location failed to show.
It happened only one time.
Now, what is the longest possible progression we can make for a 2:1 bet location ?
Well, this all depends on the casino's table limits.
But let's work with something to use as an example :
$5.00 minimum bet with $1,000.00 max bet.
(most casinos vary this min and max so if your building a progression for where you
play, you first need to know these limits)
In order to profit from each spin when it wins, you need to bet the following
progression :
|
| |
Spin
| Amount
| Win
| Loss
| 1
| 5.00
| +10.00
| -5.00
| 2
| 5.00
| +5.00
| -10.00
| 3
| 6.00
| +2.00
| -16.00
| 4
| 9.00
| +2.00
| -25.00
| 5
| 13.00
| +1.00
| -38.00
| 6
| 20.00
| +2.00
| -58.00
| 7
| 30.00
| +2.00
| -88.00
| 8
| 45.00
| +2.00
| -133.00
| 9
| 67.00
| +1.00
| -200.00
| 10
| 101.00
| +2.00
| -301.00
| 11
| 151.00
| +1.00
| -452.00
| 12
| 227.00
| +2.00
| -679.00
| 13
| 340.00
| +1.00
| -1,019.00
| 14
| 510.00
| +1.00
| -1,529.00
| 15
| 765.00
| +1.00
| -2,294.00
| 16
| 1,148.00
| +2.00
| -3,442.00
| 17
| 1,722.00
| +2.00
| -5,164.00
| 18
| n/a
|
|
| 19
| n/a
|
|
| 20
| n/a
|
|
| 21
| n/a
|
|
| 22
| n/a
|
|
| 23
| n/a
|
|
| 24
| n/a
|
|
| 25
| n/a
|
|
| 26
| n/a
|
|
| 27
| n/a
|
|
| 28
| n/a
|
|
| 29
| n/a
|
|
| 30
| n/a
|
|
| 31
| n/a
|
|
| 32
| n/a
|
|
| 33
| n/a
|
|
| 34
| n/a
|
|
|
|
| |
Our data shows us (with these limits)..
We need a bankroll of 5,164.00 and we can stretch the progression to a max of 17 spins.
|
| |
This means, we can play these 100,000 spins and not lose - so long as we
start after a 2:1 location fails to show for 17 straight spins, then use our progression.
The results ?
Horrible (in a nutshell)
|
| |
Count
| Spins
| Win amount
| Total
| 1
| 63,126
| no bet
| 0
| 2
| 42,515
| no bet
| 0
| 3
| 28,954
| no bet
| 0
| 4
| 19,584
| no bet
| 0
| 5
| 13,177
| no bet
| 0
| 6
| 8,788
| no bet
| 0
| 7
| 5,966
| no bet
| 0
| 8
| 4,066
| no bet
| 0
| 9
| 2,775
| no bet
| 0
| 10
| 1,874
| no bet
| 0
| 11
| 1,234
| no bet
| 0
| 12
| 850
| no bet
| 0
| 13
| 587
| no bet
| 0
| 14
| 354
| no bet
| 0
| 15
| 241
| no bet
| 0
| 16
| 183
| no bet
| 0
| 17
| 130
| no bet
| 0
| 18
| 85
| 10
| 850
| 19
| 56
| 5
| 280
| 20
| 41
| 2
| 82
| 21
| 21
| 2
| 42
| 22
| 18
| 1
| 18
| 23
| 6
| 2
| 12
| 24
| 6
| 2
| 12
| 25
| 5
| 2
| 10
| 26
| 2
| 1
| 2
| 27
| 1
| 2
| 2
| 28
| 0
| 1
| 0
| 29
| 2
| 2
| 4
| 30
| 1
| 1
| 1
| 31
| 0
| 1
| 0
| 32
| 1
| 1
| 1
| 33
| 0
| 2
| 0
| 34
| 1
| 2
| 2
|
|
| |
This gives us a grand total profit of +$1,318.00
This equals a profit per spin of +$.01318 (about a penny and a third) per spin.
Now, this took a bankroll of $5,164.00 to achieve, and after 100,000
spins - we are only ahead $1,318.00
:(
Sadly, to build a "perfect" progression, and be almost assured that will not fail
(and it could)... we reduce our profits to such a point that this isn't worth the effort.
Note also, this is just 100,000 spins - it's possible that the next session will produce a
sleeper of over 34 spins - and a loss of a bankroll of 5.1k
And - table qualification means that we are possibly waiting for a massive number of spins
while we wait for the table to qualify.
In closing, to make a perfect progression that is very close to un-losable, we can expect
at best 1.3 pennies of profit per spin.
Any ideas, please post at this sites forum, VIP or GG message boards.
Hope the info is usefull and makes us think about our approach to betting and
the "holy grail" - If anything is taken from this, please remember that the Holy Grail
(when found) will produce only the smallest of possible returns - rendering it worthless.
|
|
