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Census 07/07 • Census 01/08
Ahem, I meant... uh... glomp?!
Sorry this was delayed about a month. This "should" be the census of 1/08; indeed, the number of posts is calibrated for that date (also useful because that's about when ToL switched boards). But the rest is accurate as of February 29, 2008, including the inactive member weeding out of that day.
Please enjoy the nerdy statistics.
Yours in the Light,
Perun Renata
(Data as of February 1, some time early in the day) There were at the time 91 registrations on the towersoflight.net forum. This is a decrease of 33 registrations from the census of July 2007. This is likely due to the inactives-weeding out and administration dispute of the fall of 2007.
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The massive purges of inactive members and administrative struggles of the recent Towers' history have had an effect on previous months' apparent registration numbers. Whereas previously June, July, and August 2006 had 15, 20, and 12 registrations, respectively, they now have 6, 8, and 4 registrations. The Towers appear to be turning into more of a mix of old members and new ones, which is good. Other positive signs include a swell of new members in 2008. However, troubling signs still remain. The explosion of raisings in late 2007 was not balanced by new memberships. For the entirety of the Towers' history, registrations per month have averaged 2.6; this pace has not kept up in recent times. The current recruiting period is definitely a necessary thing.
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Basic Stats
The gender imbalanced of Towers of Light continues. There are 15 males in the Towers (12 saidin+3 Warders) and 46 females (42 saidar+4 Warders). This puts our gender ratio at about 3:1 females:males, a slight drop from the previous ratio of 5:2. As with the previous census, however, this ratio decreases as rank does. There are 7 female JM-1 members and 6 male ones. But that statistic shows a harrowing phenomenon in the Towers of Light: the extreme drop in the proportion of Senior Members to Junior Members. In July of 2007, Novices made up 26.7% of the Towers, and 43.2% of the saidar path; today, these numbers stand at 9.8% and 14.3%. The first tier of Junior Members in general made up 45.8% of the Towers; now this is 21.3%. Though its wonderful members are raised more quickly through the ranks, and the policy of eliminating inactive memberships should not be halted, these issues may not fully explain the problem.
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If people were distributed randomly with paths and ranks in the same distributions as what we have now, here's what you happen:
| Saidar | Saidin | Warder | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JM-1 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| JM-2 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| SM | 25.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 |
Performing a chi-squared analysis (a fancy way of comparing the expected values vs. the observed values) gives us a chi-squared value of 4.24, with 4 degrees of freedom. All you need to know: the P-value of this is 37%; this means that we can be at least somewhat confident that members advance through the ranks at an equivalent pace, but more data (another reason to get more members!) is necessary. Relative outliers appear to be a lack of Senior Members in the saidin and Warder groups.
Locations
The United States has maintained its lead in number of members. It appears the distribution of members no longer registered has little to do with the nationality of the member, though no new countries are represented in this census.
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Path-Specific Stats
Saidar Path
The Green slice of pie was hungry, apparently, and decided to snack on the White. Why people would choose any Ajah over the Brown when the Brown has the best Sedai ever is beyond me (PROPZ TO MY SEDAI, C-UNIT, YO). OAAAON=Of all Ajahs and of None.
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Warder Path
The Warder system is unique on Towers of Light; both males and females can serve in the ranks of the Warders.
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Due to a continued decrease in the number of Gaidin/Gaidar, there are now only two Squadrons:
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Members by Birthday!
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58 members have stated birthdays. If birthdays were distributed evenly, each month would have 4.8 people with birthdays in it. Doing a chi-squared nerdy statistical analysis, the chi-squared value is 10.8, with 11 degrees of freedom. Sorry conspiracy theorists! Our P-value is 46.3%, meaning that in numerous random distributions of birth months this configuration (or a configuration just as random) would happen about 43.6% of the time. So, no oddities here, essentially.
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