Position information:
Pip-count: Red 122-92 WhiteScore: Red 4-1 WhiteMatch: 7-pointer
White to play 54
Position ID: yy8ABww7djYACA , Match ID: EQH2ABAAIAAA
My own analysis:
Red is in an awkward position and his home is a complete mess at the current moment and also 5 men to bring to saftey yet. Instead, white has a strong board and positional power. These factors favors a bold move for white, hence the GNUBG's favorite move: making the 4-pt with 9/4-8/4. After this move, red will have some good rolls such as 53-63, but bringing 5 men home will be a tall order for him and then getting a shot for white will be much more profitable when he has a 5-pt board.
1. Cubeful 2-ply 9/4 8/4 Eq.: +0.930 81.8% 28.9% 0.5% - 18.2% 1.7% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 2-ply 9/5 9/4 Eq.: +0.901 ( -0.028) 82.3% 25.5% 0.3% - 17.7% 1.2% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 2-ply 22/17 9/5 Eq.: +0.825 ( -0.104) 81.4% 20.6% 0.2% - 18.6% 1.3% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 2-ply 9/5 6/1 Eq.: +0.733 ( -0.197) 76.3% 22.5% 0.2% - 23.7% 2.1% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 2-ply 22/13 Eq.: +0.718 ( -0.211) 80.1% 13.5% 0.1% - 19.9% 1.1% 0.0% Note that even the timid move of 22/13 wins simple wins almost as much as the best move, but with much less gammons which are vital for white at this score.
Pip-count: Red 122-151 WhiteScore: Red 0-0 WhiteMatch: 5-pointer
Red to play 5-5
Position ID: mNnFBiDY3QYGEA, Match ID: QYm2AAAAAAAA
1. Cubeful 2-ply 23/13 8/3(2) Eq.: +0.984 78.0% 43.8% 1.4% - 22.0% 3.4% 0.1% 2. Cubeful 2-ply 23/8 6/1* Eq.: +0.908 ( -0.076) 77.9% 38.0% 0.5% - 22.1% 3.1% 0.1% 3. Cubeful 2-ply 23/3 Eq.: +0.887 ( -0.096) 77.3% 37.5% 0.7% - 22.7% 3.2% 0.1% 4. Cubeful 2-ply 23/18 8/3(2) 6/1* Eq.: +0.857 ( -0.126) 71.9% 47.1% 1.4% - 28.1% 4.9% 0.2% 5. Cubeful 2-ply 23/13 14/9(2) Eq.: +0.734 ( -0.249) 74.8% 30.4% 0.6% - 25.2% 2.9% 0.1%
Analysis provided by various people on bgonline forums:
- Philipe Micheal :
If it's not the full prime, it must be 23/13 8/3(2).
It's probably a matter of return hits. That's an important feature in this kind of run-into-multiple-hits-from-stripped-points position.
The full prime is nice but you can easily lose the priming battle if you're hit. Putting a second man behind yours helps a lot (and wins some gammons, especially with 8/3(2)).
- Stanly E. Richards:
23/13 8/3(2) In addition to Philippe's comments, one should realize that you really do not need a full prime. The 3 point is more important than a full prime. The more inside points, the more likely that one can win a gammon by hitting and blocking out your opponent with a full inner board. Bring in the ammunition and later blitz. Yet, I do find Ian's suggestion to hit the one to be interesting. It may be best, but I will wait at least one more roll before the blot hit. Stanley
23/13 8/3(2)
In addition to Philippe's comments, one should realize that you really do not need a full prime. The 3 point is more important than a full prime. The more inside points, the more likely that one can win a gammon by hitting and blocking out your opponent with a full inner board. Bring in the ammunition and later blitz. Yet, I do find Ian's suggestion to hit the one to be interesting. It may be best, but I will wait at least one more roll before the blot hit.
Stanley
- garyo:
great qf position! making the prime looks so strong, but can you keep it? probably, but 18, 3(2) doesn't strand a lone checker with a better than even chance of being hit. what happens when he gets hit? lots of prime breaking rolls for you and plenty of counter priming chances for him. owning the 3 point here keeps him from making it after an exchange of hits and makes our return hits even more devastating (ntm gammonish) my second choice would be 23/3
Pip-count: Red 104-114 WhiteScore: Red 0-4 WhiteMatch: 9-pointer
White to play 2-1
Position ID: tm1GAiDa7hQAMA, Match ID: AYEoAUAAAAAA
In this prime-vs-prime battle, white is the clear underdog, because he has 2 men back againt 1 man of red. In this position, making the 2-pt is an awful mistake, because afterward red can escape with a 6 and then white will be in a very awkward position. Instead, it's better for white to make his bar-pt and waiting hopefully to see red's breaking his prime.
1. Cubeful 2-ply 9/7 8/7 Eq.: -0.277 40.9% 8.3% 0.2% - 59.1% 18.0% 1.1% 2. Cubeful 2-ply 5/2 Eq.: -0.512 ( -0.236) 31.2% 7.6% 0.1% - 68.8% 18.9% 1.4% 3. Cubeful 2-ply 8/6 2/1* Eq.: -0.574 ( -0.297) 30.7% 11.9% 0.4% - 69.3% 24.0% 2.3% 4. Cubeful 2-ply 6/4 2/1* Eq.: -0.638 ( -0.361) 30.9% 12.2% 0.4% - 69.1% 28.4% 3.7% 5. Cubeful 2-ply 9/7 2/1* Eq.: -0.639 ( -0.362) 31.8% 12.4% 0.4% - 68.2% 30.0% 4.0%
