The purpose of this page is to make it
a little easier for new people to get a grasp of what some of the
seasoned contest vets are talking about so that they aren't massively
confused every time a new discussion comes up. There's a lot of new
lingo and such being thrown around like candy, and it can be really
hard to follow everything. Hopefully this page will make it a little
easier.
SFF (Same Fanbase Factor): When two
characters with vastly overlapping fanbases are in a match, you're
likely to see a blowout of epic proportions in comparison to what the
characters should be getting on one another. This is SFF, and it's one
of the most common terms you'll see on the boards. Link/Ganondorf 2004
is the biggest example of this, though it has happened in other
matches. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many
people will slap it onto any match that they don't understand fully. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.
rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states
that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving
more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. This is a very shaky
theory, and the only decent evidence of it ever happening is Mega
Man/Zero 2004 in which Zero managed to win a few updates and be far closer to Mega Man than most expected him to be. As for rSFF
actually helping a weaker character to win a match, it's yet to even
come close to happening.
Update: The Summer 2005
Contest was nice enough to allow Mario to beat Samus, giving us the
biggest case for rSFF allowing the weaker character statistically to
win the match. Wasn't that nice? Now granted this means Mario is now
the stronger character statistically, but that's besides the point.
Xsts (Extrapolated Standings): Refers to a statistical listing made
after each contest in which every character is given an "Expected Value
Against Champion" based off of the percentage they had in their loss in
that contest. The winner of the contest is given a value of 50.00%, and
the other characters in the contest fall in line. The Xsts have become
a staple of Board 8, and have become a mainstream tool in picking
matches. The hardcore mathemeticians of the board have gotten the Xsts
down to such a science that even SFF adjustments can be made to them by
using other characters as bases to determine the SFFd character's
expected value. However, while the Xsts are ingenious, it's a "live by
the sword, die by the sword" philosophy. The board generally tends to
favor the stats in some of the tougher matches, an no one is more
shocked than the board when the stats go wrong. While the stats serve
to be a good tool, they are mostly a general guide and not pure canon
due to the fact that they are not linear.
LFF (Leeching Fanbase Factor): A phenomenon of multi-option polls in which two entries of the same fanbase screw each other over. It happens all the time during offseason multi-game polls, not to mention throughout the entire Summer 2007 Contest.
TJF (The Jug Factor): Mostly little more than a board fad in 2002,
The Jug Factor is the theory that girls with big jugs (breasts) do
better than they're supposed to in the polls. TJF is basically the
label that people used when trying to explain how Spyro lost to
Morrigan, how Terry Bogard lost to Aya Brea, and how Gordon Freeman
lost to Tina Armstrong. As for TJF being a major factor, it's very
doubtful.
KHF (Kingdom Hearts Factor): Refers to the massive, near-inexplicable
boost that Cloud, Sephiroth, and Squall all received between the Summer
2002 and Summer 2003 contests. Kingdom Hearts was released between
those two contests, and by the time the Summer 2003 Contest rolled
around, KHF was what most people blamed for Squall's shocking victory
over Luigi, Sephiroth's demolishing of every opponent he faced before
the finals, and Cloud being able to decimate every opponent in his
division en route to being able to beat Link and Sephiroth in the Final
Four. The main defenses of KHF are one, that the characters that
allegedly benefitted from KHF have cooled off a little since Summer
2003, and two, Sephiroth/Mega Man 2003. In 2002, Sephiroth and Mega Man
had a match in which Mega Man scored 48185 votes out of 97357. In 2003,
only one year later, Sephiroth and Mega Man had another match. This
time around, Mega Man managed 48213 votes out of 124192. In one year,
the same exact match was given an extra 26835 votes, yet only 28 of
those extra votes went to Mega Man.
VFL (Vyse Fodder Line): Essentially, it's common consensus among many
that Vyse is as weak as you can be and still be strong enough to be in
the contest. You go below it, and you're fodder. Thus, Vyse is the
fodder line (kudos to HaRRicH for the definition).
Update:
Tifa essentially told this theory to go and screw itself in the Summer
2005 Contest. Since Vyse isn't exactly a reliable character to use as a
fodder line, it may be a better idea to simply use a numerical Xst
value. Personally, I think a good number for the fodder line is an Xst value of 15%.
BMF (Black Mage Factor): The theory that certain characters do better
depending on the picture they get, simply because it makes them more
recognizable. This was a major reason for believing that Vivi would
beat Donkey Kong in 2004 despite not many knowing the name "Vivi".
However, this factor has existed since the beginning of these contests
and applies to more than just Vivi the Black Mage. The same factor can
apply for CATS, Kefka, Shadow of FF6, Chrono Trigger characters when they get their sprites, Ryu Hayabusa and others.
Virtually any character that isn't a household name around the world
can do better if they're given a picture that everyone knows, even if
the voters don't put the picture together with the name. This factor is
essentially an extension of TJF, but it applies to nearly everyone and
is a little more viable.
BL (Base Link): It's generally accepted that 2003 Link should be the
base for all universal calculations due to 2003 Link being equal to
2002 Link (due to some insane math that creativename came up with that
I won't even pretend to understand), and it has become more and more
common to see universal stats and calculations based off of him.
FFF (Fodder Fluctuation Factor): This is a very recent factor in terms
of people catching onto it, but Phediuk has actually been throwing
around the idea for well over a year now. We've simply never had solid
evidence of it. FFF is a theory that states that fodder becomes
stronger as it faces weaker opponents, and vice versa. While this is
generally true for every character, you generally see more wild
fluctuations for fodder then you do anyone else.
This
is FFF, the idea that fodder characters are oftentimes under or
overestimated due to not being in matches that they have a real chance
of winning. Part of this reason may be that the Xsts cannot
accurately gauge characters as they get into the deeper layers, but the
idea of fodder not being consistent regardless has always been there.
It's simply never had an official name before.
GFNW (Gordon Freeman Never Wins): http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/gordonfreeman.htm
TTF (The Tanner Factor): A character facing someone so weak in an early match that they look FAR stronger than they actually are. Snake > Tanner is the biggest example of this, though there are plenty of other matches that cause chattering masses on Board 8 to overestimate characters scoring huge blowouts early.
TYF (The Yoshi Factor): A character being overestimated due to past success in a Poll of the Day featuring multiple entrants. Yoshi winning TWO "Favorite Mario Character?" polls is an excellent example of this, though past GOTY polls have much the same effect as well.
WDF (West Division Factor): A lot of characters from the West
Division look overrated in the 2002 stats due to a number of
inexplicable matches all tied in with Sephiroth. Sephiroth, Samus,
Sonic, and Mega Man were all nearly dead even in the stats due to them
all having close matches with one another. Sonic/Samus were only
separated by 34 votes, Sephiroth/Mega Man were only separated by 987
votes, and Sephiroth/Samus were separated by 5130. Because all of these
characters are so close and because the Xsts go by percentage, it is
widely believed that the reason for these four characters being
overrated is due to Sephiroth overperforming on Link. While this is a
viable reason, it's still very possible that something really strange
happened in the matches within the West Division that year as well.
Close matches tend to cause statistical problems, after all. We still
don't have a clear-cut answer for why it happened, but at least we have
a name for it: WDF.
20XXDF (20XX Division Factor): Without question,
the 20XX Division is about the most fucked up division we've ever seen
in any of these contests. It's not so much a factor as it is a warning
sign for anyone who wants to take the results seriously. The most
obvious reason behind this is the entire trio of Frog, Liquid Snake,
and Master Chief. Thanks to the three characters having two matches
decided by a combined 100 votes, they were all dead even in the stats.
This is all well and good, but thanks to Solid Snake getting the single
worst picture we've ever seen in one of these contests against Sprite
Frog, Frog was able to give Snake an extremely close match. Frog
grabbed the early vote, fell behind by a couple thousand during the
day, then came back by a few hundred in the second night vote. This led
to Frog, Liquid, and Chief all getting very high values in the 2004
Xsts -- almost even with Solid Snake.
People expected the trio to be underestimated, but not to the low
levels that future matches would indicate. Against Sephiroth in the
Spring 2005 Contest, Liquid Snake completely bombed and scored 10% less
than what the 2004 Xsts projected. This was after a very unimpressive
victory against Lavos, as well. Frog also underperformed in 2005 when
he saw a doubling in a projected SFF affair versus Riku turn into a
52-48 disappointment. And Master Chief went back to his old ways of
being Mr. Anti-Vote when he greatly underperformed against CATS.
But the division's... odd nature, so to speak, actually doesn't stop
with this trio. Mega Man won this division in 2005, and went on to be
absolutely demolished at the hands of Link in the Final Four. People
put the SFF tag on Mega Man/Link, and as such, the entire division was
subsequently adjusted upward to account for the alleged SFF. Some
argued against the change, but before the change was made, Solid Snake
was well under Ryu in the stats after having beaten him to a pulp the
year before. However, Solid Snake aside, some rather odd things have
happened recently that may suggest that a Link/Mega Man adjustment
should not have been made. Tidus, Tommy Vercetti, and Zero have all
(relatively) underperformed since 2004. Earthworm Jim, Shadow the
Hedgehog, Max Payne, Protoman, and Crash Bandicoot have yet to see another contest.
Well neither has Tanner, but who gives a crap about him? >_>
The only characters who really help make that SFF adjustment valid are
Solid Snake, Kefka, and Knuckles. But they were all in the same
fourpack, and it's likely that Kefka was the benefit of a ton of
bracket voting against Vercetti in 2005. Even Solid Snake is tough to
gauge, given that he has yet to have a tough to call match since 2002
and Metal Gear Solid characters and games have been bombing left and
right in these contests. It'll be difficult to accurately judge what
happened in this division, assuming we ever do. Too many odd things
happened within it and outside of it to gauge very well.
A Lesson on Percentages
Stop
assuming that a comeback is going on when the losing character gains in
percentage. You are not deep. You are not perceptive. You are not
intelligent. Get a job. Or better yet, go back to the third grade and learn some basic math.
In every contest, during seemingly any match, you'll always get some
idiot making a "ZOMG CHARACTER X IS COMING BACK HE'S CLOSING THE
PERCENTS!111!" topic somewhere.
It is at this point that everyone else wishes they were in the same
real life room as the idiot making the topic, because as everyone who
has ever passed a third grade math class knows, the losing character
closing the percentage means squat; most of the time, at least.
Rather than putting it into words, here is a numerical example using somewhat fake data:
Samus - 40 [100.00%]
Sam Fisher - 0 [0.00%]
In this example, Samus has a 40 vote lead and 100% of the vote. Now check out this awesome magic trick:
Samus - 120 [80.00%]
Sam Fisher - 30 [20.00%]
Despite Samus increasing her lead by 50 votes, her percentage of the
total vote went from 100% to 80%. No one should bother saying that Sam
Fisher is coming back in the match, because he isn't. It's plain as
day. And while this example is fairly easy to understand due to the low
numbers involved in the data, it's viable in a contest match when the
vote totals are much higher as well. Not every gain in percentage by
the lower character means that said losing character is coming back in
the match, and a great example of this would be Master Chief/Crono
2005. In the beginning of the match, Crono had over 70% of the vote. By
the end, he only had 61.29% of the vote. Yet Master Chief, despite
using a good day vote to take nearly 10% off of Crono's total, didn't
win a single five minute update. Not one. In fact, he never came close.
Don't be that idiot who assumes a comeback is going on every time the
losing character gains in percentage. Percentages are only there to see
trends and to make the Xsts. To see if the loser is coming back, bust
out the calculator. This isn't to say that percentages can't be an
indicator of a comeback (especially in a close match), but vote totals
work just as well in that case regardless.
Odd Matches
Though
many odd matches have popped up through the years, most remain
unexplained. This is just a little section that lists what I feel are
the odd or fluke matches that have happened, though I've decided
against trying to explain exactly why they're flukes.
The reason? Because I don't know why they're flukes either. They just are =p
Or maybe you disagree. Who knows.
Note: The matches that have been covered above by factors such as WDF are not included in this list.
DK/Aya 2002
Mario/Cloud 2002
Ganon/Tidus 2003
Magus/Ganon 2003
Mario/Shadow 2003
Link/Magus 2003
Ryu H/Jill 2004
Mario/Crono 2004
Pretty much every match involving Starcraft in Spring 2004
Kefka/Mithos Spring 2005
Tifa/Vyse 2005
Master Chief/Donkey Kong 2005
Solid Snake/Sora 2005
Crono/Vincent 2005
It's easy to see why some of these matches were odd, but for others
it's not. You may agree with some, and others you won't. This list is
mostly just for fun anyway though, so don't take it too seriously.