Mets Project

Nick Evans, 1B, 6-2, 185

            Welcome to the right handed hitting Mike Carp. The Mets have been bringing him along a little slower in hope to exploit his raw power, but Evans, at 21 years old, may be ready for a breakout season.

            The Mets were intrigued the first few times they scouted the then 17 year old Evans at St. Mary’s High School in Phoenix, Arizona, where they always recall his advanced bat speed. Therefore, they selected him with their 4^th round pick, 5 rounds before they would select a slightly more polished 1B with what they thought to be a lower ceiling, Mike Carp. Signed quickly to $217,500 signing bonus, Evans continued to hit bombs when he reported to the Mets Rookie-ball affiliate as a third baseman in 2004. He finished with 7 HR, 27 RBIs, accompanied by a .258 average. However, the Mets noticed two distinct problems. Like most young prospects, he had 51 strikeouts, but for a league with Rookie-level pitching, Evans drew just 14 walks in 182 AB, with a .311 OBP. More importantly, the Mets saw the writing on the wall the minute they drafted him, that, while he was built to play third-base and was quite mobile, he had limited range. Ultimately, that’s why the Mets felt holding him back one more year was necessary. He played first base his whole 2005 campaign, where he hit a combined .272 with 12 HR and 55 RBIs in 290 at-bats but again, a .319 OBP. He found himself trying to pull the ball a lot while at Brooklyn, but scouts say that when he went to hitter friendly Hagerstown in 2006, he went back to his 2004 way of showing off his raw power to all parts of the field.

            At Hagerstown, he hit 15 HR with 67 RBIs, a .320 OBP and a .419 slugging percentage. His 33 doubles in 2006 should just amount to more HRs next year. A closer look at his statistics shows he went homer less all through half of July and all of August while collecting just 13 RBIs, but that’s mostly because 2006 was his first full year, and he hadn’t had nearly as many at-bats beforehand. (511 in 2006, 225 in 2005, 248 in 2004.) His upper cut swing adds to his power projection.  It’s interesting to note that in Carps first 146 games in the Minor Leagues, 67 where in 2004 and 89 were in 2005, he hit a combined .246, which, compared to Evans 137 games at Hagerstown, he hit .254

            In conclusion, Evans will probably never hit for a strong average, but Mets officials say he has yet to totally fill out and has done a lot of weight lifting over the off-season, leading many to believe 2007 will be an exorbitant power surge for him. Right now, his career path reminds some of Pat Burell, who went from 3^rd base, to 1^st base, and ended up as an everyday left fielder. His range doesn’t appear good enough to play first base on an everyday basis. Consequently, while he’s not a base-stealer, his average speed has made him a sold base-runner, which, if he can keep that skill while he fills out, only adds to the possibility of playing left field. In my opinion, Carp is without a doubt, always going to be the better hitter, evident by his polished swing and .OBP. (.379 In 2006, .358 in 2005.) I’m not an impatient fan, but, since there’s no room in the future outfield, with Carlos Beltran, Lastings Milledge, Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, even Sean Henry, the Mets should keep him at A+ all year long just like they did with Carp and let him up his trade value.

I thought this to be the perfect time to do an analysis of Niese, who completed his first full year in the Minor Leagues in 2006.

 He was selected in the 7^th round of the 2005 draft out of High School in Defiance, Ohio. That same High School produced RHP Chad Billingsly, the Los Angeles Dodgers first round pick in 2003 and has since moved on to the big leagues. However, my growing interest in the 20 year old is mainly due to the fact that it provoked a stark comparison to that of another current top Dodgers Prospect, Scott Elbert. Without a doubt, this could be the year Niese develops into a top 10 prospect.

            To start off with, I’ll continue my comparison with him and Mr. Elbert. Elbert was recently ranked by Project Prospect’s top 100 list,                                                                                                

Which is in my opinion one of the most foremost authorities on all of minor league baseball, as saying that it’s he who will one day end up being the Dodgers ace, not Billingsly. To start off with, they’re built almost exactly alike, with Niese topping him by just one inch. It’s hard to gauge stats as an exact comparison considering how much competition in the Minor Leagues varies, but its’ only fair in a full analysis I’ll give you Niese’s line for the year. He signed rather quickly out of High School in 2005, where he then reported to the Mets Gulf Coast league and was able to get about a month of playing time in. he posted a 1-0 record with a 3.65 era, in 24 inning while striking out as many batters as innings pitched. He then headed to Hagerstown for his first full year, where, in 123 innings pitched, he went 11-9 with a 3.93 era and 132 strikeouts. The Mets were as hesitant to promote him to A+ as they were on his pitch count, which never went over 90 pitches. He only spent a cup of coffee at High-A, where he went 0-2 with a 4.50 era.

            He carries an interesting and novel arsenal. Scouts can’t help but wonder about how far his sinking fastball will take him, which regularly sits between the low to mid-90s. His curveball and changeup are above average pitches but need some refining as well as his control. Consequently, he has a devastating splitter which has accounted for the majority of his strikeouts. Elbert’s career turned around in 2005 after he stopped relying on his fastball –

The key word for Niese is potential. His command was a problem all of last year, where he paced the league with 62 walks, roughly half of his innings pitched. With Humber and Pelfrey at the forefront, Niese could make himself valuable trade bait. An invitation to spring training is unlikely, but look for him to up his innings pitched to al least 160.