Mets Project

Prospect Match up

Mets vs.: Phillies

 

           

Mets Top Corner Infield Prospects- 1B- Michel Abreu, Mike Carp, Nick Evans, 3B- Shawn Bowman, Jose Jimenez, Joshua Peterson,

 

Phillies Top Corner Infield Prospects- 1B- Bryan Hanson, 3B- Mike Costanzo, Welinson Baez

 

 

Offensively- First, we need to get one thing out of the way here, when we get mad at the government, it’s usually because we feel the answer is right there in front of their eyes and they’re too wealthy or haughty to take the right road. By the same token, some people know Mets 1B prospect Michel “The hitting machine” Abreu as a 26 year old, while others know him at 31 years old. Here, he’s known as 31+. That being said, 2007 is a new season, and Julio Franco will have to come out raking if he wants to hold Michel Abreu back in the minors. However, little wear and tear is evident on his 6-3 frame; after the Red Sox found out that he was masquerading his age, he signed a minor league deal with the Mets for $425,000, in between switching agents and living in Mexico and Costa Rica after defecting from Cuba. Next, he was challenged right out of the gate by being sent to class A+ St. Lucie. He spent all of two games and nine at-bats there as a bench player, before he was sent to AA Binghamton as an everyday player, leading the league in average and OBP by the beginning of July and never stopped there. He finished at .332 accompanied by 17 HR, 70 RBIs, and a spectacular .934 OPS.

 

When he came to the Arizona Fall league, he was like an elder, fragile man who had been forced to leave elementary school out a tender age after some money was essential back home, and here he was again, back to redeem himself and get his diploma. Playing against a few seventeen-year olds, he posted a .280 average with 6 HR, and 25 RBIs, raising his average nearly 70 points within the last 10 games, which included an eight-game hitting streak  and driving it at least one run in his final 7 games.

 

            Not much physically has changed since he defected, as he was Cuba’s home run leader for four years beforehand. There’s a good chance that one day in
April, Carlos Delgado’s child will be born, possibly provoking a promotion of Abreu.

 

            The fact that the Mets are in such a dire need for a front line starter and are not willing to give up Mike Carp for Jake Westbrook tells you a lot. When you talk to scouts and coaches around the game about prospects, they’re usually quick to point out his all-around skills if not his good-boy looks, but there has been wide-spread commotion about his sagaciousness as a baseball player. Scouts are the bloodline of the game, and if their had to be a caption over Braves famed scout Paul Snyder as he walks around with an arcane looking hat and a cigar protruding from his mouth, it would say something like, “Skills will get you to the big leagues, makeup will keep you there.” He’s somewhat of a solitary and outcast player, accompanied by a quiet approach at the plate, reminiscent of his laid-back California surfer attitude.

 

            A common trait among intelligent players are smart-base runners, who make it from first to third when it’s feasible and halt at second when it’s rather facetious to do so. In stark contrast though to may people, Carp came running out of the gate in 2005 at Hagerstown, crushing 10 home runs and hitting over .280 in his first 25 games, then feel into an arcane slump which could have been the direct result of soreness in his wrist, which he subsequently broke in the beginning of August. Carp has seen high school had a very wide open stance, which is usually the equivalent of power for young hitters especially. Carp diminishes that theory, as in 2006, not only did Carp start hitting the ball to all fields, but he curtailed his strikeout at a tremendous rate, ( 2005- 96 so’s in 313 at-bats, 2006- 107 so’s in 491 at-bats.) The only knock on him as a major league player would be he may have to be platooned. If you can play at AA, you can play in the big leagues, and Carp’s clean swing path and patience is all but ascertained to be rewarded.

 

            Below carp on the depth chart is Nick Evans. Believe it or not, the only idiosyncratic difference between Evans and Carp is Evans has more power projection due to his uppercut swing. He intrigued the Mets Scouts the first time they saw him at St. Mary’s High School in Arizona, his expeditious bat speed earning him a 4^th round selection in 2004, accompanied by a $217, 500 signing bonus.

 

Like most young prospects, he had 51 strikeouts, but for a league with rookie-level pitching he drew just 14 walks in 182 at-bats. After playing in Brooklyn in 2005 in order to learn playing 1^st base, (he was drafted as a 3^rd baseman,) the next stop was Hagerstown. It was somewhat of a mixed bag hitting wise for him. At Brooklyn, Evans for the first time showed a prominent tendency to pull the ball and got exorbitantly home run happy. That seemed to go away in 2005, but Evans tenaciously held onto another adversary, posting a .320 OBP.

 

Now, we’ve seen a few Mets prospects who, after a few years of experience, finally busted out at A+ Port St. Lucie, for instance, Mike Carp and former Mets prospect Jesus Flores, so there’s no reason to think Evans can’t do the same.

 

Across the diamond, the Mets are facing a few uncertainties. Therefore, after reading this, I feel I have to assure you to not feel so queasy or worry yourself sick over your qualms, because David Wright over the summer received a pretty check. Shawn Bowman’s career has been somewhat of a roller coaster.

Right off the bat, he showed off his power potential, hitting 19 HR and 69 RBIs. After bracing Baseball America’s top 10 charts after that year, Bowman fell into a sophomore slump, mostly due to sharp pains in his back. He managed to hit 17 HR in just 87 games, but excluding the injury, his season was mainly outlined by a .221 average and 110 strikeouts in 326 at-bats. Bowman rested that off-season, hoping the pain would go away, but it only got increasingly worse the next year. He was reluctant to have surgery in fear it would end his career. The solution?: Cortisone shot number 10,000. “They finally got the right spot”, said Bowman. If they didn’t prove it enough, Bowman dominated the Venezuela league that winter, entering November 29^th; he was batting cleanup hitting .342-5-15.

 

            The Mets have little to go on their next two farmhands. In two or three years however, Jose Jimenez might become a household name. The 19 year old got his first taste in the Mets organization, hitting .309 with two HRs, 11 RBIs, a .437 OBP and a .455 slugging percentage. The only actual scouting we have on him is solid plate discipline, and that is unelaborated since he has not even played ball in the United States. 2007 we should get our first glimpse, followed by his full season debut in 2008 if he succeeds.

 

            We have plenty on Joshua Petersen, and little confidence. Like most community college players, he was very under the radar coming, signing as a non-drafted free agent instead of attending Lynne University. The Florida native went through 2 level of rookie ball; in 2004 he hit .253 in his first year with Kingsport, and then moved a step up to Brooklyn, hitting .276. Peterson mysteriously decreased his walk total between those 2 years, 21- 6, with only 4 less at bats in 2005 than the year before. That mysteriousness was only to be outdone when he started raking out A+ St. Lucie.

 

For most non high school draftees, the double jump is never really too much of a problem, and in the beginning, Petersen continued to back up that claim, hitting .317 and showing an improved OBP of .341 in just two months. They got Mets staff excited, and that’s when he showed why he was a non-drafted free agent, not even hitting .200 for the remaining three months. In addition, his OBP hit the floor, at .274 with 14 walks. He’ll have to now hit as good as he was in the first two months as he repeats AA, just to keep him in baseball.

 

In Philliy town, it’s now they who’re embarrassed at this match up, not because of the potential of their 3^rd basemen, but they clearly don’t even have anyone to show at 1^st base. Unlike the Mets situation with Wright, the Phillies have yet to lock up Ryan Howard, though it’s hard to imagine what hitter wouldn’t want to play in that bandbox. That same year they selected Ryan Howard in the 5^th round, they selected two other corner infielders. Terry Jones, a talented third baseman who was released when he was just 21 years old at A+ Clearwater, accumulating a .229 average accompanied by 17 HRs, 108 RBIs, and a .310 OBP. On the other hand, two rounds later, they selected first baseman Bryan Hansen. After relatively struggling his first two years as well, Hansen was sent to start 2004 and Low-A Lakewood, where in 462 at-bats, he hit .273 accompanied by 9 HRs, 59 RBIs, and a .374 OBP. The next year it was much of the same, hitting .266/8/38/.346. In both years, in a combined 803 at-bats, he had just 111 strikeouts. His uppercut swing accompanied by a big leg kick has shown both positive and negative contrasts, as he has shown little power yet strikeouts less in 2 years than Cameron Maybin and many other minor leaguers had in one. Surprisingly, he was sent to repeat Clearwater in 2006, hitting nearly the same average in 352 at-bats, before being promoted to Reading at the All-Star break. He hit the tank there, smacking .146/0/6/.186. Hansen’s power makes him less likely to be a pinch hitter, which means he really has to prove himself at AA Reading next year.

 

 

 

            The Phillies have lacked adequate 3rd basemen ever since Scott Rolen, and it doesn’t seem they’re getting any closer to producing another one. Mike Costanzo, who hit and pitched like an all-star at Coastal Carolina, was thought to be a safe pick with some star potential. After all, since David Bell seemed to implant himself at 3^rd base following his fourth consecutive season with the team, they were very zealous about finding a replacement. Luckily for him, Phillies fans still feel the same about him since he’s a local product, pride of Springfield Pennsylvania. Selected with the Philies 2^nd round pick in 2005, and followed the route that most college players take when getting drafted; spending his first season at advanced Rookie Ball Batavia. There, he immediately showed his power potential, .274/11/50/.356/.473. The next year, he made the normal jump for collegiate players, heading to A+ Clearwater, and for the first few months, everything from Costanzo’s overall hitting ability to why that hitting ability so frequently takes place only when the spotlights are on. Many members on the coaching staff feel Costanzo has not played to the best of his ability and that his mediocre average, (.258 last year) could have been raised by a considerable rate. In addition, while it’s fair to admit Clearwater might not be a haven for left-handed hitters, it had absolutely no affect on his plate discipline; his 133 strikeouts could have been a sign of “giving up.” Not good news for a hometown favorite.

 

            You could make a case the Phillies were more adamant than Welinson Baez was, but that confidence is slowly deteriorating. From a human being standpoint, it’s hard to anticipate much from a 17 year old signed from the Dominican Republic, so there was no vehement outcry from the Phillies after they watched his play the first two years in the Gulf Coast League. Many people saw 2006 as Baez’s breakout year, but the Phillies saw some facaded hints those first few painful years, his instincts, and 33 doubles certain to turn into homers, were what defined him. Isn’t there a reason why we don’t want experts speaking for us? After Baez followed 2005 with a .932 OPS, he seemed primed for a breakout year in 2006, but Baez’s primary stats at Lakewood; his 158 strikeouts were beyond what he would have been projected for had he spent a full year at Batavia.

 

Defensively: While David Wright’s appeared on Lettermen, graced the cover’s of Sports Illustrated and MLB the Show, it’s all irrelevant to Shawn Bowman’s fielding. He was ranked no/ 7 on Baseball America’s top 10 prospects list in 2004, and was thought to be the best defensive infielders in the game, despite being drafted as a shortstop in High School in British Columbia.

 

 

 

            Bowman isn’t the only player who has gone through a position switch at such a young age. Nick Evans was originally drafted as a 3^rd baseman, though the fact that he was switched wasn’t because Mike Carp was in the way. In his first year in the GCL, Evans showed decent mobility, which has carried on to him as a base-runner, but had limited range. The Pat Burrell comparisons have already begun, and are going to end with Evans playing left field. Evans hasn’t proven the Mets can run him out there everyday. Clearly, Evans is molded for the outfield because of course, his arm and speed haven’t left him at third base, which are relatively ineffectual skills as a 1^st baseman. 2007 should show an appearance makeover as well, since Evans has yet to fill out.

 

            As long as Mike Carp’s bat carries him, his defense shouldn’t be overstressed. By no means is he a Billy Butler already fitted for the DH spot, but Carp looks very unnatural if not infamous covering first, prevalently stretching out manically when he should just let the ball come to him.

 

            Welinson Baez’s defense is every bit as good as his offense, butchering 33 last year. At 22, it’s unfair to let this be a final judgment year for him, but he supposedly isn’t very high on Pat Gillicks list. Costanzo has more to worry about than his fielding. He shouldn’t be too difficult for him to win back the hearts of fans, by Mike Costanzo has already dug himself a hole, and he can’t keep on digging. Twenty one errors in 73 games in 2005 followed up by an egregious year in the field could have been somewhat altered.

 

           

Final Call: Mets win by a landslide.

Why Dontrelle will be dealt

For Florida Marlins GM Larry Beinfest, it’s time he makes a shrewd baseball move. He did it last winter when he constructed one of the most prolific and lucrative fire sales in the history of sports. It’s not about drawing crowds anymore. It’s about having the gumption to take a hit in the PR, losing a few fans, and building up his team’s win total.

 

            Although this site is dedicated to the Mets minor league system,  I can’t guarantee that Willis will be  donning the orange and blue within a few years, but what I can guarantee is Larry Beinfest has made a blatant faux pas this off-season.

 

            Sure, a lot of people that concur with me would note that both Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson both posted lower era’s last year, but did anyone ever notice that between Willis, Scott Olson, Anibal Sanchez, Josh Johnson, and even Ricky Nolasco, the “D-Train” posted the highest whip?

 

Marlins Starting Pitchers	WHIP
Anibal Sanchez	1.19
Josh Johnson	1.30
Scott Olsen	1.30
Ricky Nolasco	1.41
Dontrelle Willis	1.42

 

 

            Of course, every pitcher there has a respectable rate. But it all adds to the fact I’m trying to prove, on the 2007 Florida Marlins, Dontrelle Willis is there 5^th starter. Another statistical spin, Anibal Sanchez was the only pitcher on the Marlins staff who had a worse K/BB ratio that Dontrelle, and he wasn’t even eligible for any league leader statistics because he hadn’t pitched enough innings.

 

Marlins Starting Pitchers	KK/BB Ratio
Ricky Nolasco	2.41
Scott Olsen	2.21
Josh Johnson	1.96
Dontrelle Willis	1.93
Anibal Sanchez	1.57

 

            Both tables order almost finished alien to one another, except for the fact that Willis finished both second-to-last and last in both. For those who see Dontrelle as such a prized piece of gold, lets’ remember that not once during the “D-Train’s” 5 year career has he strikeout more batters than innings pitched, let alone even got 50 strikeouts within that range. In addition, do I dare even throw one more statistical analysis at you guys? OBA flat out proves our point all too well.

 

 

Marlins Starting Pitchers	OBA
Anibal Sanchez	.300
Josh Johnson	.321
Scott Olsen	.321
Ricky Nolasco	.344
Dontrelle Willis	.349

 

            What’s exciting about all this is that while Dontrelle, at the age of 25, has already logged 817.1 innings, the other four pitchers just completed their first full year and are certain to only improve. In a world without criticism and teams sweating over revenue, the Marlins should simply sign a veteran forth or fifth starter at a cheap price.

 

            In addition, let me turn back the clock to that infamous fire sale. The Marlins knew they were facing a clear-cut adversary heading into 2006, they had just lost aces Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett, who, between trade acquisitions and free-agent compensation, acquired a slew of young players that included Anibal Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez, and Chris Coghlan. Beckett and Burnett barring injury were much better than Willis, which the table below indicates.

 

*Dontrelle Willis-817.1 innings  Josh Beckett- 813.2 innings      A.J. Burnett-989.1 innings

 

Marlins former/current pitchers	WHIP	KK/BB Ratio	OBA
Dontrelle Willis	1.38	2.38	.322
Josh Beckett	1.25	2.58	.309
A.J. Burnett	1.29	.209	.318

 

            To paraphrase all that information, the Marlins faced a diminutive yet nonetheless a bigger adversary when they let go of Beckett and Burnett, and anyone can tell you they easily moved on. Surely, and rightfully so, the Marlins would face criticism if they dealt Willis to the Mets for a package that includes Lastings Milledge, or to the Dodgers for a package that includes Matt Kemp. No question about it, it’s risky with both players, but if anyone remembers, the Marlins rejected an offer last May from the Tigers of Justin Verlander and Curtis Granderson for Willis, which I feel I don’t even have to explain to show just how sagacious the Marlins staff would look today if they had made that deal. Not that I would be fretting if the Mets acquired Willis today, but from a Marlins standpoint, remember this is a pitching staff that managed to place 10^th in the league in era last year, 10^th in strikeouts, which in particular required the starting staff since they accumulate more innings, and hence, would have topped more categories had they not had the most precarious bullpen in baseball last year. In comparison to some much needed offense, they finished 21^st in average, 23^rd in OBP, and 23^rd in hits. In conclusion, the Marlins will eventually be forced to part ways with Dontrelle as a myriad of pitchers who will be eligible for 6 years worth of service will be on the way. For example, they have Chris Volstad, (A+) Brett Sinkbeil, (AA) Sean West, (A+) Taylor Tankersly, (MLB) and Gaby Hernandez, (A+.) All of these pitchers vying for the picayune 5^th spot. Message to Larry Beinfest: Why not get all your value now?

Prospect Match up

Mets vs.: Phillies

 

             

 

The set-up of this match up is very similar to that of Scout.com, where they compared both the Mets and Yankees prospects. Kudos to everyone there.

 

Rollins, quoted by MLB.com on 1/23

 

 

 

"I think we're the team to beat in the NL East -- finally," Rollins said during the Phillies' Winter Tour on Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park. "But that's all on paper. You have to go out and do it on the field."

"I wasn't that bitter watching the playoffs and World Series last year," Rollins said. "The year before, I was more bitter. You know, for the first time since I've been here, I can actually say that I expect us to go to the playoffs. I think we have the pitching to get us there. Our offensive production the last couple of years has been great.

"We've gotten off to slow starts the last couple of years. Its tough playing behind, 6-0, in the third inning every day. This year, I think things are going to be a whole lot different."

 

 

Catchers-

Mets Top Catching Prospects- Francisco Pena, Yasmill Bucce, Jason Jacobs

Phillies Top Catching Prospects- Jason Jaramillo, Carlos Ruiz, Louis Marson, Jesus Sanchez

 

 

Offensively- Virtually no one has proven to be any type of offensive force out of this group. However, I have not a single qualm that Francisco Pena will one day be the connoisseur of this group in shambles. Unfortunately, we will be forced to exclude Pena from most of this conversation due to a lack of experience. So far, the Mets have traded Justin Huber, Drew Butera, a fifth round pick in 2005 has so far been a bust, and, did we forget? There’s Aaron Hathaway, who, well, decided he wasn’t into it. However, the Mets may have made a sagacious steal this past draft, selecting catcher Jason Jacobs out of the University of Georgia in the 20^th round. Brooks Brown’s battery mate proved to be a spectacular force on the base paths in the NCAA. His junior season might not tell you that, judging from his .337 obp, a solid number but nothing special in college. His senior year however, he appeared to reach his zenith, posting a .433 obp, combining to form a .929 ops. It seemed like a fluke for a player to have more walks than strikeouts like Jacobs did in 2006 with Georgia, but he repeated that feat once he arrived in Brooklyn, walking 30 times as opposed to 27 strikeouts. On the down side, while he has solid plate discipline, Jacobs hit just .217 with 30 hits in 138 at-bats in 45 games.

Many do not remember that Yasmil Bucce, was selected as the top catcher in the GCL in 2005. Scout have raved not only about his all around skills, his .337 batting average in 2005 accompanied by just 21 strikeouts in 98 at-bats, but also his humility and work ethic, evident by his transition from 3B to C in his first full year. The Mets thought highly enough of him to send him to A+ Port. St Lucie in 2006, where he tore his labrum. It tells you a lot when, while the Mets let Jesus Flores go to the Washington Nationals in the Rule 5 draft, they protected Bucce by placing him on the AAA reserve roster. His assignment next year should depend on his health. If he’s not 100 % healthy by the beginning of 2007, they will probably place him in their extended spring training team and then send him to either Brooklyn or Low-A Savannah. If he’s ready by the beginning of next season, expect him to spend the whole year at Savannah.

            On the other hand, the Phillies prove to have a lot more depth. 24 year old Jason Jaramillo demonstrated his prospect status at Low-A Lakewood in 2005, after being selected by the Phillies in the 2^nd round, (62^nd overall) in the 2004 amateur draft. Unfortunately, these stats quickly faded in 2006 when he reached AA Reading, where he posted .248-6-39-.320. The Phillies, desperate for some catching at Citizens Bank Park, promoted him to AAA Scranton Wilkes Bare for emergency cases. Like most switch-hitters, he’s more skilled from the left side than the right. Although, scouts say one positive from the past year was he showed much more potential from the right side. That being said, Carlos Ruiz is by far the most proven player of everyone. It seems ludicrous to even mention Ruiz in this column, who’ll be 27 on opening day and has been in the Phillies minor league system since 1999, when he joined the Dominican Phillies. He never really got it going until 2004, when he was 24 and in AA Reading. Since then, he has incessantly hit .300 and has shown a great ability in getting on-base. Supposedly, the Phillies are somewhat anti-Ruiz, most likely because of his game calling ability.

Simply put, Louis Marson and Jesus Sanchez haven’t had enough playing time to show us what they’re really all about. In spite of that, they are most likely destined to be the most rounded catchers in the Phillies farm system in the future. Marson, a 4^th round pick out of Coronado High School in Colorado in 2004, (which by the way, was featured on MTV’s “High School Stories” the past year, after 4 kids managed to close school one day as a prank.) He’s a .246 career hitter in 3 minor league seasons, but at 20, definitely has room for improvement. He spent all of last year at Low-A Lakewood, where he demonstrated decent strike zone discipline. Unlike most catchers, the 6-1 202 pound catcher showed some unique speed, hitting 5 triples. Last but not least, after watching C.J. Henry continues to falter after being traded from the Yankees in the Bobby Abreu deal last summer, Jesus Sanchez could very well be the jewel of that deal. Singed by the Yankees in 2004, he spent most of 2006 with the GCL Yankees, hitting .269 in 24 games accompanied by 5 doubles and 10 RBI’s. After being traded, he played 8 games for the GCL Phillies, hitting .192. He has shown a rare and prominent ability for a 19 year old by prevalently driving the ball the other way. He has yet to fill out…..

 

 

Defensively: Defense comes into play as a catcher more eminently than any other position on the baseball diamond. Currently, Mets farmhand Yasmil Bucce is on an advanced throwing program and working out at the team’s Venezuela academy, making progress ahead of schedule. His defense has improved dramatically since last year, despite being a converted 3B. The arm strength has been there since day 1, and only his footwork and accuracy need a little work. On the other hand, Jason Jacobs is likely to follow in other former Mets farmhand’s footsteps, Mike Jacobs, soon converting to first base. It could even be as soon as next year, as the Mets have a logjam with Drew Butera and of course, Bucce.

            Jaramillo sticks out of this group like a sore thumb. His ceiling may just be Yadier Molina, but he’s all but supposed to be as good defensively as him. He had a diminutive problem with his defense while in the AFL this past year, but that was likely just a one time bump in the road. Pitchers have raved about his game calling ability. Sanchez is known to have a spectacular arm to go along with good makeup. Marson has a pretty good arm and good footwork. Also, his soft hands have impressed people. “Going to be a solid everyday player”, says one scout.

Final Call: Phillies Win.

Coming Soon: Corner Infielders

 

 

Prospects Ready to Rebound

 

            For many prospects that are injured, they find themselves like second generation scions, the success of prospects before them has them buried in quick sand, buried so far behind in the Minor League System that great perseverance can’t always conquer. Here are a few talented prospects that are currently rehabbing or trying to refine their skills in order to get their name out.

 

Shawn Bowman, 3B:  Bowman seems to have been around a long time, he was selected in the 12^th round of the 2002 draft out of High School in British Columbia, and the Mets saw that as the reason he was so under the radar. He put his mark on the map while playing for the Canadian Junior team where he hit .395, with 4 HR, 17 RBIs, while displaying a quick bat and above average power potential. What really struck the Mets though was his outstanding fielding, so good that in 2004, some people thought David Wright would be moved to 1^st base. He was ranked no.7 on Baseball America’s top 10 prospects in 2004, and was thought to be the best defensive infielder in the whole organization. In 2004, he played his first full year at Low-A Capital City, where he hit 19 HR and 69 RBIs. Although, in 2005, his season was ended after 87 games, after hitting 17 HR and 53 RBIs accompanied by a .221 average. He hit just .198 after April, and was showing signs of rebounding and was on pace for 30 HRs. In 2005, the pain in his L5 vertebra, the lowest in the pack, started off gradually and the pain only increased when he went back to playing. He rested that off-season and was sent back to St. Lucie in 2006, but the pain only got worse. He’d already taken several cortisone shots, but with such a mysterious injury, they had trouble finding the right spot. His season ended after just 32 games after a line of .252-3-19-.311. Finally Bowman said, “they got the right spot”, instead of surgery, which could have ended his career. Finally, he headed to Nicaragua, where he was the player of the month in November. Entering December 29^th, he was batting cleanup hitting .342-5-15. In 2008, the inevitable; David Wright at 1^st base.

 

Brett Harper, 1B:          Selected in the 45^th round of the 2000 draft, Harper was for awhile what the Mets drafted him to be; a minor league roster filler. Signed almost a year later, he had three stints in Rookie Ball for the next three years, a combined 140 games. It was a clear mistake of the Gary Larocque era, (who was fired as Mets scouting director in 2005) along with Steve Phillips. Let’s take it through. He hit .336 in 2001 at Kingsport, and the Mets put him at Low Class A, where he struggled in all of 10 games. In 2002, the Mets burned an unnecessary full season at Brooklyn, where he hit .279 with 1 HR, and 20 RBIs. The Mets still didn’t get the message, when in 2003; they made a ludicrous move by sending him back all the way to Kingsport as a roster filler. He obviously blew away the league there in a short time, and was then sent back to Brooklyn, were he hit .299 in 87 at-bats, but mysteriously, his 6-4 180 pound frame only mustered 2 HR. He hit .329 in yet another short stint at Capital City. Ultimately, it convinced the Mets they had something. In 2004, the power was already there, between A+ St. Lucie and AA Binghamton, he hit 16 HR and 71 RBIs while hitting.265. That was just the beginning of the power surge. In 2005, while back at St. Lucie, he clubbed .280-20-60 and won the HR derby, sending him to AA, where he hit .273-16-42. In 2006, after playing briefly for Binghamton, he tore his labrum in his shoulder. The key for Harper’s power surge was a widened stance that A+ St. Lucie hitting Coach Dave Hollins taught him. Hehas an outstanding career OBP of .363 and a .478 career slugging percentage. Defense is an issue though, as Harper is not fleet footed or quick around the bag, projecting him as a DH or pinch hitter. The 26 year old should be ready for spring training. Expect him to start at AA but quickly move up to AAA.

Minor League Comparison

* Brett Harper, 1537 at-bats, Mike Jacobs 2,056 at-bats

	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP
Brett Harper	.296	58	279	.363
Mike Jacobs	.288	69	363	.344

 

Matt Durkin, RHP: Finally, someone drafted more recently. The 2004 Draft was a college pitching oriented one, (which you will read about in a future column, on evaluating the Mets and Braves drafting pitching, set to release sometime next week) and Durkin was their second round pick, out of

San Jose State, for an $800,000 signing bonus. The Mets came off disappointed from his 2005 season, they felt the college product should have dominated Low-A Hagerstown. He went 4-5 with a 3.77 era in 2005, striking out 79 in 76 innings. His fastball was his key pitch early on, stemming back from his San Jose State days, with nice movement, but about halfway through that 76 inning season, he was already showing signs of tiring, his fastball, which usually sit in the 91-94 mph range, was now only in the high 80s. He didn’t have his first rough outing until May of 2005, where he gave up 11 runs in 3 innings. In addition, he walked 54 batters, even though he was able to hold batters to a .210 OBA. He admits he’s a power guy, and when guys started fouling off pitches at Low-A, that’s when he ran into trouble and his pitch count escalated. His secondary pitch is his curveball, which also seemed to flatten out last year. He has a decent slider and changeup but doesn’t use those too prevalently. His aggressiveness is perhaps the reason why he didn’t walk even more. After the season ended, he was sent to the instructional league, where he had surgery doing an ulnar nerve transposition. Durkin played very little in 2006, (18.1 innings.) The 23 year old rested this off-season and is working very hard to refine his curveball and command. He should join the A+ St. Lucie rotation with Kevin Mulvey in 2006.

Prospect Battle:

Deolis Guerra vs: Gaby Hernandez

January 23^rd, 2007

 

For skillful bloggers and ordinary fans alike, the off-season is prevalently a time to reminisce about every picayune problem with are team the year before, and to alienate ourselves from every possibility of replenishing our Achilles Heal except through means of trade. If you had any executive under the bright lights and asked them about what possibly may be the most enjoyable part of their job, and, while some may admit cigar chomping in the GM suite, others may admit that there’s nothing like a juicy, controversial trade rumor incapable of placating the most convivial talk radio show.

 

            So, with no big rumors floating about in Amazin land, I’ll turn the clock back to a year ago, when the total opposite was taking place. Looking for a replacement for former franchise hero Mike Piazza, the Mets turned their attention towards Florida, where the Marlins were undergoing a dreaded yet necessary fire sale. After the Mets objected to handing over a major league ready player for Lo Duca, a player who played just as prominent role in the clubhouse as he did on the field, the Mets relented and decided to give up 19 year old flame-throwing Gaby Hernandez. It seemed utterly incomprehensible to those who had the slightest idea of who Gaby Hernandez was. The past June, he had mesmerized the imaginations of die-hard Mets fans, when he threw a no-hitter on father’s day of 2005. Almost six months later, Omar Minaya took a huge gamble that another Latin pitcher, Deolis Guerra, would make Mets fans forget about Hernandez’s blazing fastball or at least equal his production.

 

            A common misconception, while both come from Spanish backgrounds, Hernandez was taken in the 3^rd round of the 2005 draft by New York, out of Belen Jesuit High, in Miami Florida. Meanwhile, while Guerra was signed in the exact same year out of Venezuela late in the summer for 700,000, he was overshadowed by the skinny outfielder who was signed at the exact same time from Venezuela, Fernando Martinez.

 

            The reason Minaya felt he could take such a huge gamble was that he thought Guerra just had a higher ceiling despite being largely unproven. Hernandez stood at 6-3, while Guerra at 6-5. In addition, they both were built more muscular then the usual newly acquired teenage ballplayer signed outside of the United States. It’s hard to speak from a pure statistical standpoint when comparing the two right handers. Both had similar years while in Low-A Hagerstown, despite the fact that Hernandez was promoted to A+ by mid-season, he’d already logged 92 innings, while Guerra had 89 for the entire year. Hernandez went 6-1 with a 2.43 era while striking out 99 in 92 innings. Guerra went 6-7 with a 2.20 era while striking out 64 in 81 innings. More importantly, both had excellent strikeout to walk ratios, Hernandez had a 132-40 in his first full year, indicative of his craving for attacking hitters while on the mound, and he only improved his second year to 23:7 strikeouts to walk ratio. Meanwhile, Guerra had a 51:19 strikeout to walk ratio since June of 2006 and 1.28 whip for the season.

 

            Finally, we get down to the real analysis. Hernandez obviously put his name on the map after a spectacular 2005, but while he has little control problems, due to the fact he has an effortless delivery he simply has given up too many hits. In over 162 innings at A+ between St.Lucie in 2005 and Jupiter in 2006, Hernandez has surrendered 168 hits to go along with an opponent’s batting average between both splits of over .270. To better paraphrase that information, Hernandez’s experience actually hurts him in this argument, as most scouts expected him to take huge leaps forward the past year. Another stark comparison is Hernandez’s fastball remains his only above average pitch, which usually sits in the low 90’s and he’s capable of dialing it up to 94 mph. Consequently, it’s not good enough or hard enough to be a go-to-pitch, meaning Hernandez must do some serious work on his off-speed pitches. Scouts opinions throughout his Minor League career about his curveball have ranged from, “inconsistent” to “awful.” Surprisingly, the only time his curveball was ever thought to be an average pitch was in his rookie debut in the Gulf Coast League in 2004, as he seems to run into the same problem in High School once in awhile, where his curveball sails high and away, often having to use his fastball to avoid walking the batter.  Also, his changeup is only though to be a tick above average. One of the main problems with both pitches is they often reveal themselves early, most likely do to a slower windup, since they’re very much a work in progress.

 

            On the other hand, Guerra at 17, already has established an above average fastball, curveball changeup, and slider. Both off-speed pitches are already listed as above average, but his fastball and slider are both used as go-to-pitches. His slider has big time movement in the mid to high- 80’s. His fastball also has nice movement, and is thought to be anywhere in the low 90s. Between the time Guerra was originally signed and his first pitch of 2006, his fastball was thought to have jumped about 3 mph. Scouts say it’s common for 17 year olds like Guerra’s fastball to jump up to 5 mph, and with Guerra’s built, fans can’t help but wonder about his ace potential. The same goes for his changeup and curve, which are almost bound to improve with maturity.

 

Bottom Line; Guerra has everything on his side except proven endurance. He never went above 5 innings all of last year, but he proved he can at least throw four pitches for strikes. Look for Guerra’s strikeouts to go up this year as he comes back with higher velocity. Hernandez will get there much quicker, probably by the end of this year since the Marlins don’t like the comfy hitting environment in their AAA affiliate. However, Hernandez, at best, will be in the Major Leagues what he was at A+, a serviceable pitcher. But at AA, with less skilled breaking pitches then Guerra, it may become a necessity Hernandez develop a decent curveball or hitters will just wait on the fastball.