Football Thoughts

An NFL fan's view on the league today

Week 16


Thursday December 18th 8:15

Indianapolis Colts (10-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9)**
- The first time these two teams met back in September, the Jaguars pulled off the upset in Indianapolis beating the Colts on a last second field goal to win 23-21. A lot has changed since then. The Jaguars have shown that these injuries on key offensive positions have really hurt them; costing them many games. The Colts on the other hand are really starting to get hot. They have just won seven straight games, and are finding new ways to win every time. Even with injuries to Marvin Harrison and Joseph Addai, these Colts are still rallying. They will head to rival Jacksonville with a quest to make the post-season, and there is nothing more the Jaguars would love to do than to spoil it. Unfortunately, that probably won’t happen. The Jaguars are a complete mess on both sides of the ball this year, and in true fashion the Colts will expose them. Also, Indianapolis will be ready to avenge that week three loss. I’m not sure if it will be from great defense of great offense (or both), but all I know is that they’ll find some way to win this ball game and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Colts: 24 Jaguars: 13
Real: Colts: 31 Jaguars: 24

Saturday December 20th 8:15

Baltimore Ravens (9-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (9-5)****1/2
- The first Saturday game of the season is quite a good one. Both teams are fighting to make the post-season, so there is no real physiological edge by either squad. The Cowboys have all the potential to make the Super Bowl every year, but they always seem to struggle come December. It just seems Tony Romo can’t deal with all the pressure. Speaking of pressure, that’s what he’ll be facing when the Baltimore Ravens arrive. Baltimore’s defense has been stellar this season, and they are showing signs of the squad that won them a Super Bowl in 2000. Joe Flacco has played very well too, and he is another big reason they’re in the position they’re in right now. However, there has been one big change in Dallas this year, and that’s defense. Unlike other seasons, the Cowboys defense has been stepping up in key spots, and has won them several games throughout the year. At home and with the playoffs on the line, they should be at normal form, holding the Ravens offense in check just like the Steelers did. You also have to throw in the fact that the Cowboys are great on night games, winning their last twelve and one shy of the NFL record. No doubt it will be a defensive game, but thanks to home field advantage the Cowboys get the nod.
Ravens: 12 Cowboys: 16
Real: Ravens: 33 Cowboys: 24

Sunday December 21st 1:00

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) @ Tennessee Titans (12-2)***** GAME OF THE WEEK
- Finally, we’ll be able to see two of the best AFC teams in 2008 meet in which should be a very hard hitting defensive battle. Although the game is being played in LP Field, the Titans come in with a huge disadvantage; an injured Albert Haynesworth. Everybody saw last year how badly this team played when Haynesworth went down, and now they’ll have to finish the last two games without him. Even though the Steelers offense has had a very off year, they still manage to get the job done when it matters. See the Ravens game last week. They were shut down all game, but when it mattered they gathered a 90 yard drive for the game winning score. Just a hunch, but like all this season the Steelers will do what it takes to leave Tennessee with home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Titans haven’t been challenged much this season by a team as powerful as Pittsburgh, and they may not adapt well to that.
Steelers: 26 Titans: 13
Real: Steelers: 14 Titans: 31

New Orleans Saints (7-7) @ Detroit Lions (0-14)**1/2
- I’m so temped to pick the Lions here. Like I said in my Power Rankings, nobody will be playing as hard as Detroit these last two games, because they’ll be trying to avoid one of the single most humiliating feats in a single season history. The Saints on the other hand were eliminated from the playoffs last week, and they may come out a little bummed. This late in the season, the games come down to who wants it more. Who do you think that is? Even though they have lost every one of them, the Lions have been playing very well recently, and they will continue that trend against a team whose hopes were shattered in Chicago. In Ford Field, the Lions will finally hold onto a victory for once and avoid being the only team to go winless in a season.
Saints: 23 Lions: 24
Real: Saints: 42 Lions: 7

Arizona Cardinals (8-6) @ New England Patriots (9-5)***1/2
- The Cardinals better pick up the pace, because at this rate they’re about to blow their best season in years. Sure, the offensive has a lot of fire power, but their inability to win the big game or win on the road for that matter is costing them. Minnesota tore them apart in every way last week, and it would be a miracle if they could pack it all together and pull off an upset New England, especially since they already clinched their division. The Patriots need this game so much more than the Cardinals, and will surely be playing at a higher level than them. Matt Cassel has been playing like a mad man lately, and things should come easily against the weak Cardinals secondary. The Cardinals have yet to prove to me they can win a big game on the road, and it should be no surprise that they’ll come up short in this one.
Cardinals: 16 Patriots: 27
Real: Cardinals: 7 Patriots: 47

Cincinnati Bengals (2-11-1) @ Cleveland Browns (4-10)DOG OF THE WEEK
- A couple of weeks ago, the Browns were looking like a team to be reckon with while Brady Quinn was in the lineup. A couple of injuries later however, they look as if they are the worst team in the league. I have no ounce of hope within me to believe Ken Dorsey can lead a team to victory; even if it is against the Bengals. This same Bengals defeated the Washington Redskins in their back yard last week, and would love to finish the season on a great note with games against the Browns and Chiefs. Ending the season 4-11-1 would be a great momentum booster for next season, which I believe they can do if they just manage the game and avoid costly turnovers. This will most likely be a very boring match-up, and probably ugly in the disastrous weather of Cleveland this time of the year, but hey its football!
Bengals: 20 Browns: 13
Real: Bengals: 14 Browns: 0

San Francisco 49ers (5-9) @ St. Louis Rams (2-12)**
- It was a valiant effort, but the 49ers efforts in Miami came just short. Not all hope is lost though; this is a very solid team that can go into every game and compete. St. Louis is finally starting to toughen up as well, competing in their last two games. Marc Bulger actually looks like the quarterback he was in 2005. Well, not really, but it’s a start. Still, it’s a relief from the first few games they played. This game pretty much means nothing besides draft position, so whoever is the more talented squad and whoever has the better mindset coming in will win. With five victories and two games left, there would be nothing more impressive than ending the season 7-9 after such a rough start. Mike Singletary will keep this team in check and expose the Rams many weaknesses.
49ers: 28 Rams: 17
Real: 49ers: 17 Rams: 16

San Diego Chargers (6-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)***1/2
- I still can’t believe the Chargers are still in the playoff hunt. If they win this game and Denver loses, they’ll be playing the Broncos in San Diego for the division title. Too bad that won’t happen, because for one they aren’t beating the Buccaneers, and the Broncos aren’t losing to the Bills. Don’t fall into all of this Chargers hype. The fact is, this team just isn’t that good. Phillip Rivers is having an all around great year, but that’s about it. Everyone else is disappointing. They have only beaten the Raiders and Chiefs (not to mention they needed a little comeback) to get back in the playoff race. The Buccaneers are far superior to those teams. They too are in the playoff hunt, and can’t afford to drop a game against an average team at home. Teams have been beating them by running it down their throats lately, but luckily for them the Chargers can’t seem to get LaDainian Tomlinson rolling this year. Without him at his peak, their chances take a great hit. Jeff Garcia is back, and he’ll be spreading the ball over this defense all day.
Chargers: 17 Buccaneers: 24
Real: Chargers: 41 Buccaneers: 24

Miami Dolphins (9-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2-11)**1/2
- All season long people have been waiting for that let down game from the Dolphins. Could it be here? Not likely; the Chiefs are one week removed from a tremendous collapse. They now realize that this season just isn’t there’s to have any type of success, and now they’ll need to handle a team that knows if they win out they’ll be in the playoffs. Tyler Thigpen will have a long day trying to avoid the Dolphins pass rush, leading to more turnovers. On defense, they should be slowly destroyed by Chad Pennington. If they gave up 54 points to the Bills at home, what makes us think the Dolphins can’t do great as well? The only real highlight of the season for the Chiefs has been Tony Gonzalez, and he’ll most likely be shut down by a defense who leads the NFL in containing tight ends. Miami will once again do what it takes, and be one more game closer to their destiny.
Dolphins: 31 Chiefs: 20
Real: Dolphins: 38 Chiefs: 31

Sunday December 21st 4:15

New York Jets (9-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-11)**1/2     UPSET OF THE WEEK
- Unless something happens in the off-season, this will be Mike Holmgren’s last home game in Seattle, and you know he’d love to go out with a bang, especially against Brett Favre. They no doubt have the team to do it. Although they have three wins, the Seahawks have played very well this second half of the season. They’ll have the advantage of having the 12th man behind them, due to the Jets playing absolutely terrible on the West coast this year. For some reason, New York has just lost its swagger, and if not for a lucky fumble they’d be sitting at 8-6 right now. It comes down to this- quarterback play. If a banged up Matt Hasselbeck starts the Jets can pull this one out, but if a healthy Seneca Wallace starts the Seahawks will be in business. I expect Mike Holmgren to make the right choice.
Jets: 20 Seahawks: 27
Real: Jets: 3 Seahawks: 13

Buffalo Bills (6-8) @ Denver Broncos (8-6)***
- As stated earlier in my Chargers- Buccaneers prediction, it is just truly remarkable that the Broncos could lose control of this division. San Diego practically handed it to them on a silver platter, and they still may find a way to blow it. Good news though- all they have to do is beat the Buffalo Bills, the team that was once 5-1 but has dropped seven of the last eight. It can’t get any worse for them. Even with the return of Trent Edwards, I see no ounce of offense being preformed even against the dreaded Broncos defense. Snow is expected in Mile High, and even though the Bills so indeed play in Buffalo they still play terrible in it (see Browns game last year). Horrible coaching will prevent them from doing anything, just like it cost them against the Jets. This doesn’t have anything to do with the Broncos being good or something, but more with the Bills being just a very bad team.
Bills: 15 Broncos: 31
Real: Bills: 30 Broncos: 23

Atlanta Falcons (9-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (9-5)****1/2
- This will be no doubt a fun one to watch. Both teams have very dangerous teams and both squads are very hot at the moment. What happens though when two teams with big expectations meet? The answer- entertaining football. Even though Matt Ryan is a lock for rookie of the year, it is hard to argue he benefits from a great run game. Minnesota doesn’t allow many running backs to run wild on them, so they’ll need to find other ways to win. The Vikings on the other hand should just rush Peterson all day long. Not that the Falcons are horrible against the run, but because Peterson is that good. Tarvaris Jackson played great against the Cardinals, and he knows if he messes up this chance, he’ll be done for good. The Falcons run this season has been great, but their eventual downfall will be too tough of a schedule to overcome. With home field and a lot more to prove, the Vikings should be in control.
Falcons: 21 Vikings: 34
Real: Falcons: 24 Vikings: 17

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5-1) @ Washington Redskins (7-7)**1/2
- There are some teams in the NFL that I just don’t have any more hope for in 2008. One is the Bills, the second is the Browns, third is the Packers, and the fourth has to be the Redskins. Seriously, how bad are they? With the playoffs on the line they only put up thirteen points against Bengals. The Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell magic are gone, and they have nothing left to care about. The Eagles do have something to care about. In fact, they have been in the playoffs the past three weeks for the matter, having to win every game to stay in it. After all that do you really think the disgruntled Redskins are going to stop them? Not going to happen. The Eagles are far superior on both sides of the ball, and will beat them up the whole game until Zorn calls for mercy.
Eagles: 29 Redskins: 12
Real: Eagles: 3 Redskins: 10

Houston Texans (7-7) @ Oakland Raiders (3-11)**     LOCK OF THE WEEK
- I’m still going to take credit for me earlier in the year stating the Texans would be a playoff team this year. I know- they aren’t going to make the playoffs, but if not for a few stinkers in the beginning of the year, not to mention all the difficult tasks dealing with Hurricane Ike, they would have been. Still don’t believe me? Oh well, I know they will next year. I’m calling it now. They still have to finish this season though, and two wins are very possible against the Raiders and Bears. This won’t be a walk in the park though. The Texans biggest weapon will be on lock down by Nnamdi Asomugha, so they’ll need to run Steve Slaton to victory. The way he’s been playing this year though, that seems very possible. Another big reason for the Texans success has been great defensive play, and they’ll be able to beat up on their weakest opponent to date in Oakland. This is a West coast trip with the Raiders playing for pride, so the score won’t be as large as it would be if the game were in Houston or a neutral site.
Texans: 21 Raiders: 9
Real: Texans: 16 Raiders: 27

Sunday December 21st 8:30

Carolina Panthers (11-3) @ New York Giants (11-3)*****
- It all comes down to this. All season long, the Giants appeared to be the…well….Giants of the NFC. Now, the Panthers are in the picture, and whoever wins the game will win home field advantage throughout the playoffs. It’s very obvious the Panthers are the better team at the moment, but will they prevail? Normally I wouldn’t have much faith due to the Panthers being highly inconsistent and the Giants repeatedly rising above it all, but the past few weeks have proven me wrong. The Panthers are solid in every phase of the game, and will beat you with defense, Steve Smith, or their great run game of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. They should be able to handle a team completely lost at the moment. New York obviously misses Plaxico Burress, and their whole team is doing worse because of it. Brandon Jacobs banged up is also having it’s affects on them as well. I don’t see them being able to stop this train called the Carolina Panthers. Both teams know what’s at stake, so whoever wants and needs it more will get it. No doubt at this point it’s the Panthers.
Panthers: 28 Giants: 13
Real: Panthers: 34 Giants: 28 (OT)

Monday December 22nd 8:30

Green Bay Packers (5-9) @ Chicago Bears (8-6)**1/2
- Ok, I’ve had it. I’m no longer choosing the Packers in any game. This team is bad. They disappoint every game and keep you coming back for more. I can’t wait for the Bears to prove this right to me- they have too much on the line to drop one to an inferior opponent. At home against a divisional opponent with the playoffs at stake is all you need to know why the Bears need to win this game. Kyle Orton and Matt Forte have both had successful seasons in 2008, and that should continue against a very weak Packers defense. The only hope Green Bay has though is a Joe Montana effort from Aaron Rodgers. Even though he has been impressive this season, it’s too much to ask for to defeat a determined team such as the Bears on the last edition of Monday Night Football when his team’s defense has been pitiful lately.
Packers: 14 Bears: 25
Real: Packers: 17 Bears: 20 (OT)


* = Game Rating
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Last Week: 10-6

All Time: 122-87

Lock of the Week: 10-5

Upset of the Week: 5-10