POLESHIFT
This programme was broadcast on UK terrestrial television
Channel 4, Sunday May 11th 2003, broadcast at 20:00 Hrs.
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Recorded MM111 (2003)
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See end of transcript for list of scientific advisors
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2000 miles beneath the earths surface, a vast ocean of liquid iron, the source of earths magnetic field. 1 billion, Trillion tonnes of molten iron. Half way to the centre of the earth, we reach the 'true centre', the earths core.
"Today something very strange is going on with the earths magnetic field"
"At the current rate it will last only into the next millenium"
"Prompted intense scientific research around the globe"
"Little is understood about the earths magnetic field and how it is generated"
"Whats happening at the centre of the earth could change our world for generations to come"
"In some outbursts, the sun hurls a mass towards earth which is equivalent to the mass of Mount Everest"
"If we lost the magnetic field, we lose our protection from the vast amounts of radiation"
Transcript by Boomerang
The Mars Global Surveyor (launched 1996) gave the first hint of the problems that a magnetic field collapse could lead to.
It was clearly shown that there was a corellation between life and magnetism.
Mars today has no overall magnetic field, however in the past Mars had a magnetic field that was between 20 to 30 times stronger than earths.
Young Mars, thought to have been very much like earth. But 4 Billion years ago Mars was struck by a catastrophic decline in its magnetic field. Atmosphere and oceans disappeared, where to?- The loss of the mag fields allowed the solar winds to 'blow off' all the surface atmosphere, including the H2O.
In the southern hemisphere of Mars, discovery of 2 large impact basins, (known as HELLAS & ARGYRE respectively).
These two impact basins had no magnetism, WHY? It could only be that the impacts occured after Mars had lost its magnetic field (Reason being:- when the impacts occured, the rock would have melted, when the rock re-solidified, would have left a 'magnetic imprint' within the rock). The estimate is that these impacts took place more than 4 Billion years ago. So, we know that Mars lost its magnetic field, and subsequently because of that, its atmosphere.
"Which makes it all the more disturbing that our field is disappearing so rapidly"
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Now scientists have discovered that our own magnetic field is in RAPID DECLINE.
We can prove this by looking at ancient pottery from vanished civilisations. Clay, like iron, has the ability to retain a magnetic memory when fired in a kiln (clay contains iron minerals which make it slightly magnetic). John Shaw has been able to precisely measure the strength of the magnetic field in antiquity,(the intense heat of a kiln destroys any existing magnetism, then when cooled, the pottery adopts the current magnetic field from its surroundings)
So every pot contains a record of the magnetic field at the time and place that it was fired. It was discovered just how dramatic the field has changed in just the last few centuries. Gentle changes were seen over a period of time, then showing a RAPID FALL as we get to the present day. The rate of change is higher in the last 300 years than it has been for any time in the past 5000 years.
"Its going from a strong field, down to a weak field, and its doing it VERY QUICKLY"
"In 300 years the field has fallen by 10%, If the decline CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE, it will be GONE ALTOGETHER in just a few centuries"
Prof. Dan Lathrop, attempting to simulate the earths core in the lab.
"We are trying to create a self sustaining dynamo in the lab,because that is what we 'THINK' the earths core is"
The key seems to be that the earths core is in constant motion. Its not clear WHAT EXACTLY got the earths magnetic field started, but we are attempting to simulate it using a large electro-magnet.
They have not yet achieved the simulation, BUT, have made one crucial discovery** What might cause a planets magnetic field to fail**
If the core were to cool enough to stop moving (solidify) then the 'dynamo' would shut down.
Earths core is slowly cooling at the rate of 'perhaps' 100 degrees per Billion years. The earths magnetic field has been around for at least 2 Billion years. It has lasted so long because it had such a vast energy source in the original heat that the earths core inherited when it was formed. Therefore, enough energy is still available to keep the core molten for Billions of years to come, so it cannot be this that is causing our 'energy shield' to disappear.
"there must be some other process at work"
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Jump now to the middle of the Pacific, the Hawaiian archipelago.
Here it is possible to see the records of the magnetic field locked in the lava flows, these lava fields have been formed over millions of years, looking at the evidence within the lava,
"it would suggest that we may be about to witness, not a gradual decline in the earths magnetic field, but a SPECTACULAR UPHEAVAL"
Within the lava, we discover the evidence of REVERSE MAGNETIC FIELDS. The most recent reversal occurred about 700,000 years ago. It took about 50 years for the argument for a magnetic field reversal to be accepted, finally, the evidence was irrefutable when further occurences of magnetic field reversal were seen in the lower layers of lava, at a period of 200,000 years prior to the last 'flip'.
The reversals occur on average every 200,000 years, the last one was about 780,000 years ago, before that at 200,000 years, before that one, even 'less'(than 200,000 years).
"so in a sense, we are a bit overdue for a reversal"
Scientists now needed to determine, 'was there a link between the magnetic field strength and the change in its direction'.
1990's Professor Gary Glatzmaier saw a magnetic reversal for himself! He designed a computer program to simulate the earths magnetic field over vast periods of time. The program ran over the equivalent of 'hundreds of thousands' of years, in 10 day steps!After spending more than 4 years working solely on this project, the professor discovered what he had been searching for, a magnetic pole reversal!
A reversal was found to occur every 100,000 years or so in the simulation. Articles were written for, and published in magazines such as 'NATURE' & 'SCIENCE'.
The process of magnetic reversal was found to occur the same way each time. The reversal 'ALWAYS' happened when the magnetic intensity was very weak.
"Here was the evidence, that what we are seeing today, a loss of field strength, is indeed linked to the onset of magnetic field reversals!"
Whats more, the professor could see 'WHY'!
In the model, 'ISLANDS OF MAGNETIC ANOMALIES' occur, these anomalies start to cancel out the main magnetic field, making it more liable to "FLIP"!
"So now the burning question is, 'Is whats happening in the model reflected in the real earth, Is the 300 year decline in our field the work of magnetic anomalies brewing deep in the core beneath our feet"?
"If so, then a REVERSAL COULD BE ON THE CARDS"
Amazingly, there are detailed records that cover exactly this 300 year period-the log books of HM Navy. Magnetic field variation observations over the centuries have been recorded in these logs. These records were used to create a time lapse movie of whats been happening. ONE region in particular showed up as highly significant.
"We have seen very abrupt changes in the earths magnetic field beneath the South Atlantic ocean.There are magnetic anomalies, and THEY ARE GROWING"
"The South Atlantic anomaly-where the field is 30% weaker, and that patch has grown substantially over the LAST 100 YEARS IN PARTICULAR"
"SO ONE QUESTION WE ARE ALL ASKING OURSELVES AT THE MOMENT - IS THE EARTHS MAGNETIC FIELD ABOUT TO FLIP"? !!!
"OUR MAGNETIC FIELD IS WEAKENING BECAUSE PART OF IT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO REVERSE"!!!
"IF IT CONTINUES LIKE THIS THEN WE COULD EXPECT A MAGNETIC 'FLIP' THAT THE EARTH HAS NOT SEEN FOR 780,000 YEARS, THAT WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC CONSEQUENCE FOR EVERY PERSON ON THE PLANET"
"BENEATH THE SOUTH ATLANTIC THE FIELD LINES ARE MOVING THE >>>WRONG WAY<<<.WEAKENING OUR PROTECTIVE SHIELD, ITS NOT IF, BUT WHEN"!!!!!!
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Question asked "So whats next (for the earth)"
Now we are at a place called 'STEVENS' or possibly 'STEINS' mountain, it is in the Western USA, Oregon.
Dr Rob Coe, geologist. Has spent 25 years researching/investigating the lava flows of this area.
The area is made up of a vast pile of ancient lava. 16 million years ago, a huge series of erruptions occured. The lava flows are clearly defined and seperate.
What is so special about this area?
"The earths magnetic field was in the middle of a 'flip'. The earths magnetic field is a mysterious thing and any idea that the global field could reverse IS ASTOUNDING & I WANT TO KNOW MORE ABOUT IT"
The lower lava flows have a SOUTH facing magneticism, the upper lava flows have a NORTH facing magneticism. Mid times the magnetic field was "ALL OVER THE PLACE, IT SHOWS A COLLAPSE OF THE MAGNETIC FIELD BY 80% OR EVEN 90%. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAGNETIC FIELD REVERSED BUT COULD NOT SUSTAIN ITSELF AND CRASHED AGAIN. THE MAGNETIC FIELD PRACTICALLY DISAPPEARED, THIS TIME FOR 300 YEARS".
What was left of the field was changing so fast that Rob found a flow that CAPTURED THOSE WILD GYRATIONS, EVEN AS THE LAVA WAS COOLING.
"HERE IS AN EXAMPLE THAT SHOWS A SHIFT OF 60 DEGREES OVER A PERIOD OF 10 DAYS, THAT IS 6 DEGREES PER DAY. IF YOU HELD A COMPASS IN YOUR HAND AT THE TIME YOU COULD HAVE WATCHED THE COMPASS NEEDLE MOVING"!!!
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(Coming towards the end of programme now, final talk about the health implications)
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From this evidence we could be looking at centuries of magnetic north changing direction from day to day. During this time the magnetic field would be too weak to protect us from galactic radiation.
Serious consequences for human health.
"Estimate 10 MAYBE 100 times weaker magnetic field than today. Solar and galactic radiation increases significantly.
The estimate is that our overall exposure to Cosmic radiation "WILL DOUBLE", and in some places it could be "EVEN WORSE".
Today the magnetic field focuses space radiation towards the far North and Far South where few people live. >>"BUT WHEN"<< the main field collapses, the weak field that is left will have a far more complex structure. Instead of 2 magnetic poles, there may be 4 or even 8 poles slowly moving across the earths surface.
It is likely that several of these poles will concentrate the radiation more towards the lower latitudes where more people live, therefore we are likely to see more deaths from cancer.
"Roughly 15 (* see note below) million people per year, that is the amount of deaths we are talking about. And if you multiply that over the whole population of the earth, that becomes a significant number. It's impossible to say for sure, but a reasonable guess is that every year a hundred thousand people would be killed by the increased levels of space radiation. Over the course of an entire reversal, the death toll would rise to the HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS. But of course, this would represent only a relatively small increase in the overall incidence of cancer".
"So it's not going to be catastrophic, it will be something to be concerned about, and by the time it happens, future civilisation will have figured out how to deal with it"
"Scientists now know that some time in the future we will have to learn to live on a planet where only a few miles of atmosphere protect us from space radiation, but the consolation is that we will be able to see the aurora worlwide, most nights"
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CLOSING COMMENTS FROM PROFESSOR GARY GLATZMAIER
"I WOULD REALLY LIKE TO KNOW HOW IT DOES IT, AND WHY IT DOES IT, AND WHEN WILL IT DO IT AGAIN?"
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* I am having trouble understanding the word that was used at this point, it sounds like he says>> "Roughly 15??? million people per year"
'Scientists' featured during the programme as follows.
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Dr Peter Olson (Geo-physicist)
John Hopkins University
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Dr Andrew Coates (Space scientist)
UCL & Mullard Space Science Laboratory
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Dr Mario Acuna (undisclosed field)
NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre
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Professor John Shaw (Magnetic fingerprints from pottery)
University of Liverpool UK
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Professor Daniel Lathrop (designed the attempted simulation of earths molten core using sodium in place of iron as core)
University of Maryland
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Professor Mike Fuller (Geo-physicist)
University of Hawaii
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Professor Gary Glatzmaier (Designed the program for computer simulation of earths magnetic anomalies)
University of California, Santa Cruz
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Dr Rob Coe (Geologist)
University of California, Santa Cruz
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